A do të na mbrojë vaksina e COVID-19?

Pretendentët kryesorë në garën e vaksinave COVID-19 kanë patur nivele të ndryshme suksesi pas provave klinike, por çfarë do të thotë kjo për luftën globale kundër pandemisë?

Prodhuesit amerikanë të ilaçeve, Pfizer-BioNtech dhe Moderna kanë thënë se vaksinat e tyre të koronavirusit kanë një normë efikasiteti prej rreth 95% ndërsa vaksina Sputnik V e zhvilluar në Rusi pretendohet se ka një efektivitet prej 92%.

Kompania britanike AstraZeneca njoftoi një nivel efikasiteti prej 70%, ende shumë më i lartë se niveli 50% që entet rregullatore amerikane kanë thënë se duan të shohin përpara se të miratojnë një vaksinë COVID-19 për përdorim.

Çfarë nënkuptojnë shifrat e efikasitetit?

Nëse një vaksinë ka një efikasitet, le të themi 80%, kjo do të thotë se nëse 100 personave që nuk janë infektuar më parë nga koronavirusi u jepet vaksina, mesatarisht 80 prej tyre nuk do të preken nga sëmundja që shkakton virusi. Këto nivele janë llogaritur bazuar në vaksinat e administruara dhe të monitoruara në rrethana të kontrolluara, siç janë provat klinike.

A do të thotë kjo se niveli i mbrojtjes për secilin individ do të jetë i njëjtë?

Jo. Një person i imunizuar me një vaksinë që ka, le të themi 80% efikasitet, ka shumë të ngjarë të mbrohet prej prekjes nga sëmundja që shfaqet me simptoma, veçanërisht të rënda.

Ata gjithashtu ka shumë të ngjarë të mbrohen nga sëmundjet asimptomatike, por kjo mund të jetë më pak e sigurt, në varësi të vaksinës.

Edhe me efikasitet 95%, për persona të caktuar, nuk ka asnjë garanci absolute të mbrojtjes.

Çfarë do të thotë kjo në realitet?

Ekziston një ndryshim midis nivelit të efikasitetit të dalë nga provat klinike dhe efektivitetit – shkallës së mbrojtjes në një botë reale kur fillon vaksinimi.

“Efikasiteti nënkupton:” A funksionon? “. Efektivitet do të thotë:” A mund të zbatohet?, thotë Marcel Tanner, një epidemiolog dhe president i Akademive të Arteve dhe Shkencave në Zvicër.

Në botën reale, efektiviteti i një vaksine mund të ndikohet nga faktorë të shumtë, të paparashikueshëm, si për shembull: shkalla e përhapjes së një virusi; sa njerëz do ti nënshtrohen vaksinimit në dozën e duhur; si reagojnë sistemet imune të individëve; nëse vaksina është ruajtur në temperaturën e duhur; nëse njerëzit e dinë nëse janë ekspozuar më parë ndaj virusit e kështu me radhë.

Në përgjithësi, efektshmëria e një vaksine në botën reale ka tendencë të jetë pak më e ulët se efikasiteti i saj.

A do të zhduket pandemia Covid-19 nga këto vaksina?

Ekspertët thonë se kjo nuk ka gjasa të ndodhë. Më realiste, thonë ata, është të mendojmë se do të na duhet të jetojmë së bashku me virusin SARS-CoV-2.

Dëshmitë e deritanishme sugjerojnë se vaksinat COVID-19 të zhvilluara nga Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna dhe AstraZeneca do të ndihmojnë njerëzit që të mos preken nga sëmundja. Vetëm të dhënat e AstraZeneca-s, tregojnë shenja që vaksina e saj mund të ndihmojë gjithashtu në parandalimin e transmetimit të virusit.

“Mbrojtja kundër sëmundjes ka vlerë për një individ,” thotë Penny Ward, “një profesore e mjekësisë në kolegjin King’s të Londrës. Ajo shton megjithatë, se vaksinat që nuk parandalojnë transmetimin nuk do të ndalojnë pandeminë.

“Derisa vaksinimi dhe masat e tjera të rezultojnë që virusi është pranë eliminimit në ndonjë vend të veçantë, dhe në të gjithë botën, do të ketë ende nevojë për distancim, maska dhe larje të duarve për të zvogëluar transmetimin e mëtejshëm sesa do të arrihet vetëm nga vaksina,” thotë Stephen Evans, një profesor i epidemiologjisë në Shkollën e Higjienës dhe Mjekësisë Tropikale në Londër.

“Vaksina nuk ka vlerë derisa njerëzit të vaksinohen dhe madje edhe atëherë, nuk do të krijonte ndonjë situatë ku të gjitha masat e tjera mbrojtëse mund të braktisen menjëherë.” VOA/ 

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